"The New Plague: Vacant Jobs"
“Hiring Now”
signs are sprouting across the United States. Businesses can’t fill the tidal
wave of empty positions. Many are not new jobs but replacements for the
unprecedented number of 79 million baby boomers retiring by 2030. The largest
number reach age 65 in 2022. This will be a terrible year for recruiters.
As COVID-19 restrictions have eased, job openings have soared. Since October 2021, the number of vacant jobs reported in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic’s monthly JOLTS report has remained at about 11 million. The latest report shows that jobs openings are high in many key industry sectors including:
Construction
380,000
Manufacturing
855,000
Transportation, Warehousing &
Utilities 479,000
Professional & Business
Services 2,065,000
Education & Health
Services
2,129,000
Retail Trade
1,046,000
Accommodation & Food Services
1,497,000
State & Local
Government
567,000
However, many businesses for proprietary reasons or because of repeated failure to find qualified candidates, do not report their job openings. As a result, we estimate the current number of vacant jobs at between 12 to 13 million vacant positions.
People are reentering the workforce, but many lack essential educational qualifications or specific job skills. Too many Americans graduate from high school or even college without “learning how to learn” or failing to attain the math or literacy levels needed for employment in today’s in-demand career areas. Meanwhile, technological advances across all industry sectors demand continuous education and training updates.
After assessing the current job situation, a Wall Street Journal analyst predicts, “If employment keeps growing like it has, by this summer the jobs market will either be extraordinarily tight, or excruciatingly so.” (March 5-6, 2022)
There is some evidence that American businesses have finally begun to increase their investments in worker training and education. But to produce more educated and skilled workers, systemic change is needed. If regional efforts do not grow appreciatively over the remaining decade, job vacancies will rise substantially. Our current analysis predicts that by 2030 there will be over 95 million empty positions globally with up to 30 million U.S. vacant jobs. The resulting economic and social upheaval will have dire consequences overseas and across America.
The next Gordon Report will focus on why systemic workforce preparation and training efforts have thus far failed to reach the scale needed to meet America’s labor market demands.
Edward E. Gordon is the president and founder of Imperial Consulting Corporation (www.imperialcorp.com).
Challenges to the Workforce System
I just returned from the Southeastern Employment and Training Association meeting (SETA) and the discussion on where do we go from here given what you see above in the Gordon Report. SETA consists of southern states and the consensus was, we need to pivot. Vacant positions are growing by the day, and even though some people have re-entered the workforce, we will never have enough people in this country to satisfy the economy's need for workers.
Immigration reform is a must because we have workers from other countries willing to fill those empty positions. The shortage of workers is here to stay, and like the Healthcare industry bringing over H1-B workers in nurses and physicians to fill their needs, other industries will need to do the same to keep their businesses thriving.
To gain an in-depth perspective, please read "The Demographic Drought" by EMSI/Burning Glass. This in the new normal after COVID.
Jim McShane
CEO, CareerSource Capital Region
