Gordon Report

 GORDON REPORT

Employment & the Economy in Uncertain Times

 

Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, announced the launching of the Security and Resiliency Initiative a 10-year, $1.5 trillion effort to boost the U.S. economy. This effort is designed to increase economic growth, innovation, and jobs that facilitate American competitiveness.

 

Dimon listed many obstacles that stand in the way. Among them he singled out the U.S. education system for being misaligned with the job skills needed in today’s labor market. He called for the “design of policies that can accelerate these efforts, including training, research and development.” He further stated, “Apprenticeship and career education programs must be expanded to close the manufacturing skills gap,” Dimon’s final exhortation, “We hope that America will come together to address these challenges, as we have in the past. We need to act now.”

 

The good news is that initiatives in a number of vital economic sectors are already underway in many U.S. communities. Health systems are collaborating with local high schools and community colleges to create skilled-worker pipelines. Bloomberg Philanthropies has provided $250 million to help fund 10 programs for healthcare careers in Tennessee, Texas, and North Carolina to alleviate vacancies in nursing, therapy, and technician positions.

 

Ballard Health is working to create a local labor pool with five northeast Tennessee school districts. Their program serves as a ladder to encourage more students to pursue more advanced medical training. Ballard helps to subsidize their education.

 

High School Inc., a non-profit foundation in Santa Ana, California, now operates six career academies with the support of local businesses, community organizations, the school district, and foundation grants. Since it began in 2007, High School Inc. has significantly improved the achievement levels of thousands of students as evidenced by a 98 percent high-school graduation rate and 89 percent of its graduates pursuing post-secondary education. High School Inc is now expanding to other Santa Ana high schools because of its success in boosting student motivation and performance. Edwin, a senior year student, told Jack Oakes, the High School Inc. Board Secretary,” My experience at High School Inc. put me on a journey that reshaped my vision of the future.”

 

MPOVING FORWARD

In the United Kingdom a quarter of job vacancies are due to skills shortages. Not enough people have the right educational and job skills to match the economy’s needs. The British Prime Minister has set a new target for its education system:  two-thirds of youth participating in post-secondary learning including academic, technical, and apprenticeship programs by age 25, The government is setting up a new skills agency, expanding apprenticeships, and fostering the development shorter technical and vocational courses in colleges and universities.

 

Similar initiatives need to be launched at the state level here in the United States due to the great economic diversity of individual states. In the State of Wisconsin, a significant expansion of apprenticeship education started in the first decade of this century. Wisconsin has also focused on strengthening cooperation among businesses and its network of technical and community colleges and the regional campuses of its university system.

 

Regional alliances have also been formed to amplify the state initiatives. The New North Inc. is non-profit corporation focused on fostering collaboration among its private and public sectors to promote the economic development of 18 counties in northeast Wisconsin. This region also has four industry alliances in manufacturing, health care, construction, and information technology that are seeking to build talent pipelines through collaborative efforts with educational institutions and other community organizations.

 

Systemic initiatives to diversify and align education and training with the needs of today’s labor market are urgently needed. Statewide efforts such as those in Wisconsin point the way forward.

 

Edward E. Gordon is the founder and president of Imperial Consulting Corporation in Chicago. His firm’s clients have included companies of all sizes from small businesses to Fortune 500 corporations, U.S. government agencies, state governments, and professional/trade associations. He taught in higher education for 20 years and is the author of numerous books and articles. More information on his background can be found at  www.historypresentations.com . As a professional speaker, he is available to provide customized presentations on contemporary workforce issues.

Increasing Labor Market Challenges

 GORDON REPORT

Increasing Labor Market Challenges

 

Employment volatility and chaos continues across all business sectors. This trend will continue into the foreseeable future due to uncertainty about how tariffs and other shifts in government policies will influence the economy.

 

Employers have pulled back some hiring and laid off some workers. However, the lack of sufficient educated/skilled labor persists. A National Federation of Independent Business survey (7/23/25) found that 33 percent of businesses reported job openings they could not fill. Twenty-nine percent had openings for skilled labor.

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) JOLTS June release reported that about 500K manufacturing jobs, 1.1M professional and business service jobs and over 1.6M health-care positions were vacant.

 

The most recent BLS employment report (8/1/25) signaled employment troubles due to downward revisions in the May and June employment numbers. The President responded by firing the BLS Commissioner. He claimed, without any proof, that the numbers are being politically manipulated. The BLS has experienced difficulties in gathering data due in some part to deportations and tariff shifts, but this action suggests that shooting the messenger will solve them.

 

This move and the potential politicalization of future BLS reports will further erode trust in U.S. government statistics. Without impartial, dependable data on wages, inflation, and other aspects of the U.S. economy, policymakers, investors, and businesses both domestic and foreign will find decision-making more difficult. How can businesses hire or invest if because of uncertain tariffs and economic data, they don’t know what the costs of goods or services will be, or from which sources they will be able to buy at competitive prices?

 

On another important job-related front, a recent Korn Ferry survey (7/29/25) on AI reported that about 80 percent of U.S. companies said that this technology is a top priority in their current business strategy.

 

Rather than just focusing on using AI for labor cutbacks, firms also need to concentrate on upskilling their workers to create strong human-AI partnerships that will better spur innovation and growth. Every business must carefully consider what skills, roles and functions AI can replace and which ones it should not.

 

AI can synthesize large amounts of data, but the quality and relevance of the data is crucial. People, therefore, need to grow their abilities to analyze and evaluate both information sources and AI output. Contrary to what AI promoters claim, human possession of these skills will never become irrelevant and will play a vital role in the growth and prosperity of businesses and organizations and the overall health of the U.S. economy.

 

Edward E. Gordon is the founder and president of Imperial Consulting Corporation in Chicago. His firm’s clients have included companies of all sizes from small businesses to Fortune 500 corporations, U.S. government agencies, state governments, and professional/trade associations. He taught in higher education for 20 years and is the author of numerous books and articles. More information on his background can be found at  www.historypresentations.com . As a professional speaker, he is available to provide customized presentations on contemporary workforce issues.

Tallahassee, FL We are seeing a decline in employment in the region. Our unemployment rate is increasing, and we are handling some local closures and layoffs. Traffic to the career centers is on the rise. This is at a time when we are flat-funded and constrained on how to spend our funding by the state and federal governments.  Should the economy shift to a recession in the coming months, the workforce system across the country will be overwhelmed and underfunded to meet the increasing demand.

Jim McShane

Gordon February Report on Workforce Issues 2024

 FEBRUARY GORDON REPORT

The Current U.S. Labor-Market Conundrum

 

The February 2024 BLS jobs report showed a surge of 353,000 jobs added in January, more than double than what was predicted in economic surveys. This follows a gain of 330,00 jobs in December. Another surprise in this February report is that average hourly wages grew rather than holding steady. Over the past year they have grown 4.5 per cent. What factors may be behind these unexpected numbers?

 

An average of 10,000 workers from the large baby-boomer population have been retiring each day. This year the average will grow as the baby-boomer retirements peak. This flood of retirees will continue until 2030. Therefore, this year and until the end of this decade, many job openings will arise from the need to replace retirees.

 

In at least some sectors of the economy, it appears that employers are raising wages to find workers with the skills they need. Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg of the NFIB (an association of small business owners) reported on their January survey, “Owners continue to raise compensation to retain and attract workers with the skills and willingness to do the job, but hiring remains a struggle in a tight labor market.” So far, this strategy has not been very successful. In that same survey, 39 percent of the respondents reported having unfilled job openings. Members of the Association of General Contractors also have high levels of unfilled jobs despite providing a wage premium of almost 19 percent over that of the average for private-sector production employees.

 

In some cases, higher wages may attract people who have not been participating in the labor force to seek a job if the pay level would offset the costs of childcare, a long commute, or obtaining additional training. A recent Korn Ferry survey of job seekers, however, found that many applicants do not have the skills required for open jobs. In some cases this is due to the development of new types of jobs with recently updated skill sets.

 

The above data points to a current labor market with a significant skills-jobs mismatch. But the Training Industry Annual Survey of 2023 reported that business investment in employee training remained flat. Going forward, predictions are that companies will cut their training budgets.  The irony is that one way or the other business will have to pay more to find skilled workers either through continuing to raise wages or by investing in more in-house or collaborative training programs.

 

Edward E. Gordon is the founder and president of Imperial Consulting Corporation in Chicago. His firm’s clients have included companies of all sizes from small businesses to Fortune 500 corporations, U.S. government agencies, state governments, and professional/trade associations. He taught in higher education for 20 years and is the author of numerous books and articles. More information on his background can be found at  www.imperialcorp.com. As a professional speaker, he is available to provide customized presentations on contemporary workforce issues.

 

We invite to submit your questions or comments by email or calling us in Chicago at 312.664.5196.

Thank you for your continued interest in our publication.

Imperial Consulting Corporation

220 E. Walton Place

Chicago, IL 60611

 GORDON REPORT

Future Shock Has Arrived

 

The 2024 election results indicate the U.S. economy was the number-one issue. A majority of voters felt that inflation and lower paying jobs had left them behind. They believed that they lost jobs with good pay and benefits due to automation, immigrants, or unfair competition from foreign counties.

 

Yet America’s economic growth is now the highest among higher income nations. The stock market hovers around record highs. While U.S. unemployment is low, a large number of skilled jobs are vacant in many sectors of the economy. Most better-educated workers have prospered since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Why do so many Americans feel betrayed by the current economy?

 

Computer Technology and Change

In the 1970s the computer revolution that has transformed today’s workplaces was just beginning. In 1970 basic skilled jobs were plentiful; a high school education was the meal ticket for most into the middle class. Only about one-third were high skill jobs requiring some form of education beyond high school such as apprenticeships, or some form of post-secondary education. Public education and government programs were largely well-aligned with the needs of the labor market.

 

Information technology rapidly transformed the configuration of the world’s economies. The Fourth Industrial Revolution has overturned job market requirements. The number of basic skill jobs has radically declined. In 2024, most good paying jobs require some post-secondary education training or education.

 

Few analysts have been more prescient about the ramifications of the computer revolution than Alvin Toffler. His book, Future Shock, was published in 1970. He wrote that most people would embrace the new technologies that made their lives better, but he warned that the new tech era required more quality education for everyone.

 

Most Americans do not accept that U.S. educational systems need radical improvements. They are clinging to an outdated educational standard that fails to equip enough students with the education and skills required for 21st-century jobs and careers.

 

The U.S. high school graduation rate has improved in recent year, but only because educational standards have been lowered. In 2023 ACT scores for high school seniors were the lowest in 30 years. The average scores in reading, math, and science were all below the benchmarks that indicate whether students will have a high probability of success in completing first-year college courses. A 2020 Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy Literacy/Gallup Inc survey found that 54 percent of U.S. adults aged 16 to 74 – 130 million people – lack reading proficiency, i.e., are reading below the sixth- or eighth-grade level.

 

Too many U.S. adults and those about to enter the workforce lack the educational foundation needed for high skill jobs and careers. Seventy-five percent of U.S. businesses report that they are unable to find applicants with the education and skills needed for vacant jobs. Technological advances as shown by rapid adoption of AI continue at an increasing pace. This is now the new normal. Old jobs will disappear, and new ones with different skill demands will emerge. An important way in which educational programs can prepare students in all types of programs is fostering the cognitive ability of learning how to learn as it enables workers to quickly gain new knowledge and analyze how to implement it to meet new challenges. Adult workers must be prepared to embrace retraining and the possibility that they may need to reinvent themselves many times.

 

A tech-driven economy does not just change workplaces, it necessitates changes in cultural perspectives and many other components of our society. Too many Americans are being left behind economically as shown by the results of the recent election. Income inequality in the United States is very high. Getting the support needed to widely improve our educational systems will not be easy, but it is a vital step for the future health of our democracy.

Edward E. Gordon is the founder and president of Imperial Consulting Corporation in Chicago. His firm’s clients have included companies of all sizes from small businesses to Fortune 500 corporations, U.S. government agencies, state governments, and professional/trade associations. He taught in higher education for 20 years and is the author of numerous books and articles. More information on his background can be found at  www.historypresentations.com . As a professional speaker, he is available to provide customized presentations on contemporary workforce issues.

 Gordon Report - November

NOVEMBER GORDON REPORT

Skills and Jobs in America: Past – Present – Future

 

First the good news: Over the past decade (2011-2020) investment in corporate training has grown by about 30 percent. The caveat is that professionals and executives received the lion’s share of these programs. (Development Dimensions International, 2023)

The current skills-jobs picture paints a different reality. Seventy-five percent of U.S. employers now struggle to find skilled talent (worldwide it is 77 percent). This is the highest figure in 17 years. (ManpowerGroup 41 Country Survey, 2023)

By 2030 U.S, talent shortages may lead to a loss of nearly $2 trillion from unrealized revenue. This will coincide with an estimated decline in the labor participation rate from 62 percent (2020) to 60 percent (2030). (Korn Ferry, “The Global Talent Crunch,” 2018)

The worker pipeline is being squeezed because too many skilled workers are retiring and too few younger people are entering the workforce. Until 2029, 10,000 U.S. workers will retire each day. At least one-third are skilled workers. Unfortunately, the following generations are smaller and many of them lack the educational attainments needed to fill the high-skill jobs of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

In 2023 the ACT scores of U.S. high school seniors were the lowest in 30 years. Grade inflation at both the high school and college levels is masking the real educational accomplishments of today’s students.

TALENT-DEFICITS CONSEQUENCES

Here are some examples of the ways that current education and talent deficits are affecting the economic growth and social welfare of today and tomorrow.  The post-COVID surge in airplane travel is stressing the aerospace sector. Airlines have ordered more planes, but both Boeing and Airbus have fallen behind in filling these orders. They have heavily invested in new aero-space technician training programs to replace retirees and expand capacity. Yet, poorly educated trainees are dropping out of these programs or creating quality issues on the job. Also, airplane part suppliers are not delivering parts in a timely manner. They also are experiencing the same inability to find and skill more workers.

The shortage of new planes in turn is forcing airlines to ramp up their repair and maintenance services on older aircraft. They also face shortages of trained mechanics and spare parts. This is reducing the number of airplanes in service at a time of increasing demand.

Nearly 600 rural hospitals (30 percent of the total) are in danger of closing. (Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform, 2023). A chronic shortage of doctors, registered nurses, and other skilled medical personnel and rising costs mean that many lack the resources to keep operating.

Factories or fabs for advanced chip manufacturing are now being constructed in several locations across the United States. Many of these fabrication companies have already begun training and education programs for the engineers and technicians who will be needed to staff these plants. However, the Semiconductor Industry Association is predicting that up to 58 percent of the projected 115,00 jobs that will be added by 2030 may not be filled due to an insufficient number of students completing degrees in science and technology programs.

The future U.S. labor economy needs more long-term talent investments. Demographic declines and increased job skills demands are not going away. Unless we do more to address skilled worker shortages, we can expect pay rises chasing a declining pool of qualified workers. This will complicate the U.S. inflation fight and raise the risk of a prolonged recession.

 

Edward E. Gordon is the founder and president of Imperial Consulting Corporation in Chicago. His firm’s clients have included companies of all sizes from small businesses to Fortune 500 corporations, U.S. government agencies, state governments, and professional/trade associations. He taught in higher education for 20 years and is the author of numerous books and articles. More information on his background can be found at  www.imperialcorp.com. As a professional speaker, he is available to provide customized presentations on contemporary workforce issues.

We invite to submit your questions or comments by email or by calling us in Chicago at 312.664.5196.

Thank you for your continued interest in our publication.

Imperial Consulting Corporation

220 E. Walton Place
Chicago, IL 60611

Ed Gordon September Report

 SEPTEMBER GORDON REPORT

A Changing Mindset on Training: Activate the "Hidden Workforce"

 

 

At long last, there are signs that companies are increasing employee training and participating in talent development programs. Why is this finally happening?

 

A recent Federal Reserve program held in Chicago focused on how companies in four Midwestern states are partnering with their local communities to upskill younger entry-level workers. Companies from many business sectors are collaborating with K-12 and post-secondary institutions to offer both career information and educational programs aligned with current job requirements.

 

This program also included a public high school graduate who told the audience how mentorships and a career exploration program interested him in pursuing a STEM career. He is now eager to begin post-secondary education that will qualify him for a career in information technology.

 

A barrier that discourages publicly traded corporations from developing human capital is now being challenged. Arcane financial accounting rules currently classify employees of these companies as costs rather than assets. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now considering proposals to require publicly listed companies to report spending on training and other human capital outlays. This may be a step toward moving the Financial Standards Accounting Board (FASB) to change accounting rules thereby giving companies the option of capitalizing and depreciating employee development as an investment, rather than expensing it as a cost that reduces earnings.

 

The Current U.S. Labor Market

Employer job training is also growing as an answer to the unprecedented demographic meltdown. Over this decade 10,000 workers are retiring each year (approximately 3.6 million workers annually). This will continue into the 2030s. Up to 66 percent of job openings are to replace these retirees.

 

A recent National Federation of Independent Business survey reported that 42 percent of their members (companies with 500 or fewer workers) had vacancies they could not fill. The number-one problem facing members of the Association of General Contractors is the shortage of skilled labor. Contractors are reporting that this is causing them to turn down new construction projects.

 

In 2021 U.S. businesses experienced over 8 million job vacancies that resulted in a profit and productivity loss of over $1 trillion. By 2022 this had risen to over 12 million jobs and a $2 trillion loss. This trend seems to have abated somewhat this year. However, labor cost per unit rose to 6 percent in 2023. Average hourly earnings have increased 4.3 percent above last year as employers have raised wages to find qualified workers. Wage inflation is likely to continue unless businesses begin to enlarge the pool of skilled workers.

 

But where can this “hidden workforce” be found? According to U.S. Department of Labor reports, about 100 million Americans of working age are not participating in the labor force. Our research shows that at least 20 million of these workers have given up looking for employment because they lack some of the specific skills a job requires. They are capable of filling such job vacancies if employers offer the job training needed to mobilize these skilled workers.

 

As many other nations are dealing with a declining working-age population and significant skills shortages, it is important to develop all our own resources. There are hidden workers in our midst who could become productive employees if their skills are updated. Are U.S. businesses now beginning to realize that persistent job vacancies cost them more than it would to start entry-level skills training or to participate in community partnerships that are renewing local talent pipelines?

 

Edward E. Gordon is the founder and president of Imperial Consulting Corporation in Chicago. His firm’s clients have included companies of all sizes from small businesses to Fortune 500 corporations, U.S. government agencies, state governments, and professional/trade associations. He taught in higher education for 20 years and is the author of numerous books and articles. More information on his background can be found at  www.imperialcorp.com. As a professional speaker, he is available to provide customized presentations on contemporary workforce issues.

 

 

We invite to submit your questions or comments by email or calling us in Chicago at 312.664.5196.

Thank you for your continued interest in our publication.

May Gordon Report - "How to Repair America's Talent Pipeline"

 

Micron Technology Inc., based in Boise, Idaho, plans to invest $100 billion in a semiconductor-manufacturing campus in a suburb of Syracuse, New York. Once fully built this campus will employ 9,000 workers and possibly support 41,000 jobs for contractors and suppliers, Yet the highly skilled engineers and technicians needed for advanced chip manufacturing are in short supply across the United States. What steps are they and local community leaders taking for solving these critical talent shortages?

 

Micron is seeking to develop a regional talent-creation pipeline through partnerships with K-12 schools and local colleges and universities. It is providing $10 million to local K-12 schools to bolster STEM education. Macron is cooperating with Onondaga Community College to develop a new degree program for chip technicians. Syracuse University is developing plans to greatly increase enrollments in its undergraduate and graduate engineering programs.

 

The extent of Macron’s education partnerships is particularly notable. Education is a continuum. Even before the educational setbacks caused by COVID-19 restrictions, it was clear that K-12 education in the United States has not been providing a significant proportion of our students with the educational foundations needed for their future development The challenge we now face is that only about one-third of our high school graduates leave school with reading and math comprehension at the twelfth-grade level. These skill levels are needed for the successful completion of post-secondary certificates, apprenticeships, community college two-year degrees, or four-year degrees.

 

Cascading Challenges

It seems likely that Micron will be affected by other types of skilled worker shortages.  Micron’s Syracuse area expansion plans were spurred by the federal incentives offered by the Chips Act that was signed by President Biden in August 2022. Other companies have announced plans to build semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Arizona, Texas, and Ohio. Chip manufacturing plants have highly exacting construction specifications requiring specialized training.

 

At the same time, growing international tensions and supply chain disruptions precipitated by the COVID pandemic are leading to the in-shoring of all types of manufacturing to the United States. Construction spending for manufacturing projects was the highest on record last year and is expected to remain elevated as there is a considerable backlog of nonresidential projects across the United States. A major reason for construction delays is worker skills shortages. In a recent survey conducted by the Associated General Contractors of America, 80 percent of the respondents reported difficulty in finding qualified workers.

 

Last year U.S. businesses lost $2 trillion in productivity and profit due to skills-jobs disconnects. We estimate that there are over 27 million skilled and semi-skilled Americans who are not participating in today’s labor force. If their skills were updated through entry-level training, the impact on U.S. productivity would be substantial due to the magnitude of this hidden population.

 

By 2030 Korn Ferry predicts that up to 90 million jobs worldwide could go unfilled. This could cost employers $8.5 trillion in profits. To meet the steeply escalating skill demands of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, more regions across the United States must develop a comprehensive approach to workforce development for a wide range of occupations in which employers and educational institutions cooperate in education and training programs that keep pace with technological advances.

 

Edward E. Gordon is the founder and president of Imperial Consulting Corporation in Chicago. His firm’s clients have included companies of all sizes from small businesses to Fortune 500 corporations, U.S. government agencies, state governments, and professional/trade associations. He taught in higher education for 20 years and is the author of numerous books and articles. More information on his background can be found at  www.imperialcorp.com. As a professional speaker, he is available to provide customized presentations on contemporary workforce issues.

 

We invite to submit your questions or comments by email or calling us in Chicago at 312.664.5196.

Thank you for your continued interest in our publication.