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Job Shock |
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Copyright © 2021 by Imperial Consulting Corporation
ABOUT THE
AUTHORS
Edward E. Gordon
is the author of Skill Wars (2000), The 2010 Meltdown (2004), Winning
the Global Talent Showdown (2009), and Future Work (2013 & 2018).
He is a historical economist who apples interdisciplinary solutions to address
the skills-jobs disconnect and related economic development issues. Gordon is
the President of Imperial Consulting Corporation which he founded in 1968, He
has taught at several Chicago-area universities including DePaul, Loyola, and
Northwestern.
Elaine H. Gordon
is Vice President of Research at Imperial. Since 1992 she has researched and
edited all of its published research and co-authored two books with Edward
Gordon. She was an Instruction Librarian at DePaul University from 1978 to
1992.
To
contact the authors or obtain more information, visit www.imperialcorp.com.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
“Job Shock: Moving Beyond the
COVID-19 Employment Meltdown to a New Skilled Talent Decade” is an employment
“red alert” for all Americans especially parents, students and employers of all
sizes who face an escalating employment crisis over the next decade. “Job
Shock” focuses on the impact of COVID-19 and the consequences of a skills-jobs
mismatch from 2020 to 2030.
Today’s and tomorrow’s jobs
require advanced technical skill levels. Workplaces may need fewer people, but
they must be better educated and able to work with advanced computer systems.
This has become the new normal for employment whether it is in an office,
production facility, hospital, law firm or service business.
The demand for talent and the
supply of workers with the desired skills are out of balance all over the
world. The populations of Japan, South
Korea, and many European nations are in decline. India and China are moving into more
sophisticated high-tech manufacturing or IT services. They both are now encountering severe
shortages of engineers, scientists, and technicians with the requisite
educational preparation due to their deficient public-education systems and the
inadequate standards of their institutions of higher learning.
In the United States a significant
generational transition is underway. The massive baby-boomer generation has
been retiring at an accelerated pace during the COVID-19 pandemic and will
largely exit the workforce by 2030. The National Bureau of Economic Research
warns that the technical preparation of this generation was superior to that of
the generations that follow.
In 2021 about 100 million
Americans of working age were not part of the U.S. labor market. The labor participation rate has ranged from
61.4 to 61.7 percent since June 2020 dropping from 63.3 percent in February
2020 when the pandemic’s impact began. We
estimate that 12 million jobs were vacant across the United States, and surveys
of employers consistently report difficulty in finding qualified people to fill
open positions. Many of these vacant jobs are in in science, technology,
engineering and math-related (STEM) occupations. These numbers could grow to up
to 30 million vacant jobs across the United States and 95 million globally.
The outlook for the future is
ominous. The United States has high numbers of high school dropouts, mediocre
international test-score results, and poor completion rates for post-secondary
programs. Moreover, COVID-19 shutdowns impeded the educational progress of
students at all levels with low-income student suffering the greatest learning
losses. While the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that by 2029 STEM
occupations will grow by 8 percent compared to 3.7 percent for other
occupations, the American education system is failing to provide adequate
numbers of students with the science, math, and critical thinking abilities
needed for STEM employment. Furthermore,
American business investment in training has been lagging, even as advanced
technologies are transforming the skills required in the workplace.
“Job
Shock” focuses on local and regional cross-sector partnerships
for finding solutions to the jobs and skills disconnect. The authors have
coined the term Regional Talent Innovation Networks (RETAINs) for these
public-private partnership hubs. They act as intermediaries rebuilding the
pipeline that connects people to the job market. RETAINs are reinventing a
21st-century education-to-employment system thereby finding solutions to the
job-skills disconnect. They have many names – High School Inc. in Santa Ana,
California; Manufacturing Renaissance in Chicago, Illinois; the Vermilion
Advantage in Danville, Illinois; the New North in northeastern Wisconsin;
Prosper in Birmingham, Alabama; and ConxusNEO in Akron, Ohio – and more than
1,000 other non-profit RETAINs across the United States and nations throughout
the world. They are providing the visionary leadership to help coordinate
regional civic action behind a strategy for talent growth that jointly benefits
individuals, businesses and U.S. competitive economic advantage today and into
the future.
Job
Shock: Moving Beyond the COVID-19 Employment Meltdown
to a New Skilled Talent Decade
Part I:
Introduction: Why Read This?
Welcome to the Fourth Industrial Revolution in a COVID-19 challenged world
economy. Their combined impact on the
U.S. job market will stretch to 2030 and beyond. Say
hello to “Job Shock!”
“Job
Shock” presents our most up-to-date research on the future of the U.S. labor
market over the coming decade. We review both long-term and short-term problems
and solutions to them that are now under way across the United States. “Job
Shock’s” premise is that America’s students and workers are as much in need of
knowledge injections as they are of vaccine injections against COVID-19.
Defining
the Realities of Job Shock
Technologies that have transformed
American workplaces now require higher skills.
The United States is not creating more high-pay, low-skilled jobs; it is
creating more high-pay, higher-skilled jobs.
Unless we confront the reality of this talent mismatch, we face a decade
in which there will be too many unskilled people without jobs who run a high
risk for lives in poverty and too many skilled jobs without people. This
potentially threatens to undermine the broader economy and increase the social
disruption that has already begun.
In today’s job market at least 50 percent of
today’s “good jobs” (those
with higher pay and benefits) do not require four-year college degrees. These
jobs need students who graduate from high school with a good general
educational foundation, i.e., strong reading/math comprehension, good written
and verbal communication abilities, problem-solving and teamwork skills. Students
then need to obtain a career certificate, apprenticeship, or a two-year degree
from a technical or community college. We are not preparing enough students for
the talent realities of the current U.S. job market.
The United States has
millions of well-educated, talented workers.
But the unrelenting demands of Job Shock
tells us that we will need to double their numbers over this decade
to run our high-tech economy.
Job Shock from COVID-19
The on-going COVID-19 pandemic
has only exacerbated this skills gap and sped up employment meltdowns. It
caused the sharpest increase in the official U.S. unemployment rate ever
recorded, rising from 3.5 percent in February 2020 to a peak of 14.7 percent in
April. In July 2021, 17 million of the 22 million jobs lost at the start of the
pandemic had been regained. The U.S. Bureaus of Labor Statistics reported a
July unemployment rate of 5,4 percent and a labor participation rate of 61.7
percent, 1.6 points lower than February 2020.
But the effect of
COVID upon different industries and jobs has been very uneven. The leisure and
hospitality sector has been particularly hard hit with its low-wage workers
experiencing the greatest job loss. Payrolls for couriers and messengers have
increased by over 20 percent.
While many businesses
lay off workers, others are struggling to fill job vacancies. Overall U.S.
businesses continue to cut job training programs, further widening the skills
gap. Businesses are increasing investments in automation and technologies that
facilitate remote work. The continuing Fourth Industrial Revolution will
further raise demands for workers with the skills needed to invent, use,
maintain, or repair advanced technologies.
The COVID-19 pandemic is illustrating that skill
shortages can have lethal results. COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers have hundreds
of vacant jobs in such areas as engineering and quality control. There are
acute shortages of critical-care doctors and nurses as well as lab technicians
to process COVID tests. How many of the over 630,000 dead (greater than the
death toll of the U.S. armed forces in World War II) could have been saved if
we had fewer shortages of medical personnel in COVID hot spots?
Also, the skilled
people we take for granted to meet our daily needs are in short supply. As
computer systems have become more and more central to our daily lives,
breakdowns and threats to the security of our private information proliferate.
Finding a qualified plumber, carpenter, electrician or medical technologist has
become more difficult in many communities. If more effective talent development
efforts are not initiated, there is a real danger that the world will not end
in a big bang, but that it will come to a slow grinding halt due to a lack of
workers with the skills needed to maintain advanced technologies. Welcome to Job Shock!
Job Shock Objectives
The goal of “Job Shock” is to raise awareness of the broad scope of
the changes needed to equip students with the education and skills needed for
21st-century jobs and careers. Worker training
also needs to be vastly expanded starting with incumbent worker training and
extending to reskilling and upskilling employees to enable them to keep pace
with constant technological advances. There are solutions already under
way in communities across the United States that can help
your local area. But these solutions are not easily available to all.
We see the most promising responses to job shock
coming from regional cross-sector partnerships composed of business owners and
managers, educators, parents, government officials, union leaders, non-profit
associations, and others. These partnerships have begun regionalized
initiatives to rebuild their outdated education-to-employment systems.
“Job Shock” is a call
to action. We need to work together in initiating the systemic changes needed
to prepare more people for better paying jobs and thus create a more equitable
and prosperous economy over this decade.
Part II: What Has
Changed?
Would You Use a
Videotape in a Blu-ray Disc Player?
The days of semi-skilled
blue-collar factory jobs are fast disappearing. These jobs once provided a 19-year-old
high school graduate or drop-out with the wages and benefits needed to support
a family with a middle-class standard of living. Thinking that working in
low-skill manufacturing or service occupations will propel you into the middle
class today is as sensible as buying a videotape for a Blu-ray disc player.
The decline of
many types of U.S. manufacturing jobs was a hot political issue in both the
2016 and 2020 Presidential elections. The economic consequences of the closing
of large manufacturing plants, particularly those making automobiles and large
household appliances, has been especially severe. Many of these factories were
located in smaller cities in which they were the central economic engines of
their communities since the 1950s. They provided large numbers of assembly-line
workers with well-paying, lower-skill blue-collar jobs. The growing prominence
of electric vehicles has made such auto plants obsolete. The new technologies
used in these vehicles mean that robotics are a central feature of their
assembly lines. Such assembly lines depend on higher-skill workers who control,
maintain, and repair the automated equipment. Manufacturing in general is
undergoing a similar transition with jobs that support automated equipment
growing dramatically.
The December 2020
survey of the National Association of Manufacturers illustrates the rapid
escalation of skills demanded in manufacturing. Even in the midst of the
COVID-19 pandemic, respondents reported the “inability to attract and retain
talent” as their top business challenge. The Manufacturing Institute has
projected that 2.4 million manufacturing jobs will likely be unfilled over the
next decade due to skill deficits.
The Fourth
Industrial Revolution is wiping out many types of middle-skill jobs. The
COVID-19 pandemic has more severely affected middle-skill and low-skill
workers. More individuals see both their
financial well-being and social status threatened. This has helped to fuel the
growth of populist movements that are latching on to conspiracy theories or
finding other scapegoats to blame for their current jobless or low-paying job
situations. They are placing the blame on the wrong targets. They should be
directing their anger at inadequate or outmoded training and education systems
that do not provide the skills needed for the jobs that are currently in
demand.
Demographic
Time Bomb
The United States and the
world are facing a structural labor-market race between advancing technology,
on the one hand, and demographics and education on the other. In the United
States alone 79 million baby-boomers are retiring between 2010 and 2030. The
U.S. Census Bureau projects that one in five Americans will be 65 or older in
2030 and by 2025 the number of retirees will be enough to populate 27 Floridas.
While the US population is projected to grow to over 355 million in 2030, an
increase of about 6 percent, the working age population 18 to 64 is only
projected to increase by 2 percent.
Similar
demographic shifts are also occurring in other nations in Europe and Asia.
Birth rates are falling significantly in Italy, Germany, China, Japan, and
South Korea to name a few. In these nations as in the United States, the
working age population is supporting an ever-growing number of retirees. This
demographic shift increases the importance of raising worker productivity. In
most nations the current pace of education reform and worker retraining will be
too little, too late. For example, in China about 70 percent of the labor force
remains unskilled as its huge rural population is relegated to inferior schools
where most students receive no more than a junior high education.
The central
premise of this “Job Shock” White Paper is that radical improvements in
educational and training programs are needed to obtain a global labor force
that meets the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s technological demands. American
businesses have become over-reliant on importing foreign talent. However, as
the world-wide war for talent heats up, it will be virtually impossible for the
United States to use this strategy to compensate for our chronic domestic
talent shortages. This situation is likely to become more acute between 2020
and 2030.
Lessons from
the Past
This is not the first time
the United States has struggled with job shock. Beginning in the1890s the
spread of electric power led to mass production methods in factories and
population shifting from farms to cities. Factory technologies required workers
with basic reading and math skills. To meet these expanded educational needs, compulsory
tax-supported education gradually spread across the nation.
The launch of
Sputnik in 1957 triggered the Space Race between the United States and the
Soviet Union. This spurred the growth of the American aeronautic and defense
industries with a consequent rise of jobs and careers in STEM (science,
technology, engineering and mathematics) areas. Encouraged by federal funding,
many initiatives sought to improve and expand STEM education and interest more
students in pursuing careers in these areas. The 1970s saw the introduction of
personal computers (PCs) in homes and businesses across the United States
further expanding technical employment growth.
The good news is
that there is not a fixed number of jobs in the U.S. economy. These past
disruptive job transitions provide evidence that personal attitudes toward jobs
do change and that the American labor market is very elastic. The new job
requirements of the 1970s sparked a nationwide impetus for improving reading,
math, and science instruction in elementary and secondary schools. There also
was tremendous growth in educational options at the college level, and U.S.
businesses developed in-house training and education programs for new and
incumbent workers.
Today’s Job
Demands
The Space Race and computer
technology revolution produced islands of educational excellence but did not
lead to the general development and expansion of education programs across the
United States. The current education-to-employment system lags far behind the
rate of change in the skill demands of the U.S. labor economy. Two-thirds of
occupations now require post-secondary education, while a high school education
or less suffices for only about one-third of jobs.
The challenge we
now face is that only about one-third of our high school graduates leave school
with reading and math comprehension at the twelfth-grade level. These skill
levels are needed for the successful completion of post-secondary certificates,
apprenticeships, community college two-year degrees, or four-year degrees.
The depth of this
problem was revealed by a 2020 Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy
Literacy/Gallup Inc analysis. It stated that 54 percent of U.S. adults aged 16
to 74 – 130 million people – lack reading proficiency, i.e., are reading below
the sixth- or eighth-grade level. This report estimated that the annual cost of
this literacy deficit to the U.S. economy is $2.4 trillion.
Today’s
technologies are increasing the importance of the ability to work in teams that
often include workers in a variety of skill and job classifications. This in
turn is heightening the importance of so-called “soft skills,” such as
effective communication, problem-solving, self-motivation, time management,
leadership, and ethical workplace standards.
The COVID-19 crisis has abruptly changed
workplaces and skill demands worldwide. It is increasing the adoption of
automation, robotics, and technologies that facilitate remote-work options. In
this changed environment, adaptability has become a vital skill. A key to adaptability
is the cognitive ability of learning how to learn as it enables workers to
quickly gain new knowledge and analyze how to implement it to meet new
workforce challenges.
The United States is
now facing a need to provide updated education and training to two expanding
sectors of the adult population – those who are not currently employed and
those who need to transition to other occupations due to the impact of the
COVID pandemic. In addition, the talent development needs of the currently
employed workforce must be addressed.
Part III: The Kids
and Workers Are Not “All Right”
Many students and
workers cannot accept the new reality that they are undereducated for many jobs
in this decade’s labor market, let alone future ones!
KNAPP has created
a robot for warehouses with the dexterity to recognize and sort random items
with 99 percent accuracy. Once such robots are put into operation, humans would
continue to work alongside them, but the catch is that these workers will need
a whole set of additional skills.
Throughout the course of the COVID-19
pandemic, small business owners have consistently reported that the quality of
labor was an important business problem. In a July 2021 National Federation of
Independent Business survey 61 percent of the respondents were trying to hire
and 93 percent of these employers reported few or no qualified applicants for
their job openings.
This situation is the result of outdated
regional education-to-employment systems across the United States. They have
largely become broken pipelines with an inadequate flow of people qualified to
fill local jobs. Unfortunately, this skills-jobs gap has persisted throughout the
last two decades. As labor economist,
Kevin Hollenbeck wrote in 2013, “I am reminded of the adage about the frog in
the pot. If you put a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will jump out. But
if you put a frog in a pot of water and then slowly boil it, the consequences
will be dire for the frog. . . . We (workers, employers, policymakers, and
politicians) like that frog, have not been alarmed enough by the signals of a
widening skills-jobs gap . . . to jump to action, and now we face the dire
consequences in the form of a “talent cliff.”
The COVID-19 pandemic has made this talent
cliff steeper. The switch to remote
schooling has meant that many students may be behind as much as a full grade
level. Jobs go unfilled due to the lack of qualified applicants while more
workers remain unemployed for six months or more and the labor-force
participation rate decreases. Clearly the kids and workers are not “all right.”
Denial or wishful thinking will not change this job shock reality.
Knowledge Shock
The 2017 film “Hidden Figures” focuses on
the lives of three African-American women who NASA hired because of their
advanced math attainments. Through making important contributions to NASA’s
space mission, these women overcame race and gender discrimination, earned the
respect of their co-workers, and secured career advancement. These three women
are unsung heroes of the U.S. space race against the Soviet Union.
What was a major reason for their
success? With the long-term help of
their parents, each of the women overcame formidable barriers to obtaining the
educational preparation that developed their mathematical talents. Education is
a shared responsibility between parents and schools. Education should begin at
home. Habits of learning should be instilled there. Parents can help a child
‘learn-how-to-learn by fostering each child’s personal talents and interests.
Unfortunately, America’s popular culture
does not esteem educators or link educational attainment to success in life.
Parents are the primary motivators of their children. If parents do not believe that doing well in
school is very important, neither will their children.
Many parents also
believe that their local school is providing a good education to their
children. Regretfully this is often not the case. Education levels have not
kept pace with skill demands in workplaces.
There is ample
evidence that K-12 education in the United States is not providing many
students with the educational foundations needed for their future development.
Every two years nationwide achievement tests are given to students in grades 4,
8, and 12. The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) commonly
called the “Nation’s Report Card” is conducted by the U.S. Department of
Education. Recent results have been nothing short of alarming.
Students are
ranked at four levels: below basic, basic, proficient (at grade level), and
advanced (above grade level). The Grade 4 test results in 2019 were: 65 percent
read below grade level, 26 percent were at grade level, and 9 percent were
above grade level. Fourth grade is a crucial point for reading attainment
because in the first three grades students are taught how to read, but by the
fourth grade they should have attained a level of reading proficiency that
enables them to learn how to learn.
At grade 12 in
2019, 37 percent received NAEP reading scores of proficient or above. However,
30 percent were at the below basic level which was larger than in any previous
assessment year. In math only 24 percent of high school seniors were at the
proficient or above levels.
Yet paradoxically
the U.S. high school graduation rate had been rising. How can this be
explained? Grade-level standards are being downgraded or bypassed. For
instance, failing students are enrolled in special “credit recovery programs”
that allow them to move on to the next grade or graduate with no or minimal
academic standards for a passing grade. Moreover COVID-19 has largely
obliterated high school graduation requirements. During 2020 most state boards
of education allowed school districts to eliminate exit examinations or lower
the number of credits needed for graduation. In Oregon exit proficiency exam
requirements in reading, writing and math have been dropped until 2024 when new
state standards are scheduled for adoption.
The NAEP scores
indicate that a large proportion of U.S. students are not equipped with the
basic educational foundation needed for success in post-secondary programs.
About 67 percent of high school graduates attend higher educational institutions.
After six years only about one-third complete a degree, certificate or
apprenticeship.
Many of these
students take either the SAT or ACT exams that are designed to access their
readiness for higher learning. Between 1967 and 2017 overall test scores on
these exams have declined. In 2019 only 37 percent of ACT takers and 45 percent
of SAT takers tested fully ready for post-secondary programs.
Most
higher-educational institutions are compelled to offer remedial education for
entering students. About 40 percent of entering freshmen are now enrolled in
non-college credit reading, math, or written communication classes. At some
institutions over 90 percent of entering students need remedial education. Poor
student preparation is also leading to declining quality in higher education.
America does have
excellent schools and universities. On the 2020 Social Progress Index the
United States ranked first in the world in the quality of its universities. But
on this same index, the United States ranked 91st in student access to a
quality elementary/secondary education. Over the past decade the decline of the
U.S. rank on this indicator has been greater than that any other nation. Unless
widespread systemic reform of U.S. K-12 education becomes a national priority,
a significant proportion of the next generation of American workers will be
under-skilled for employment in the workplaces of the future.
COVID-19
Learning Consequences
Since March 2020 almost
all K-12 students have been receiving at least some instruction remotely rather
than in the classroom. When the pandemic subsides, what kind of learning losses
can we expect?
·
Millions
of low-income and rural students lacked reliable internet access and about 3
million mainly low-income students were not enrolled in school. Many will likely fall behind a full grade
level or more.
·
The
longer the pandemic persists, the greater the harm to students being taught
fully or partly online.
·
Online
learning is less effective for younger students as their attention spans are
limited, and it also negatively impacts their social skill development.
·
Testing
conducted by Curriculum Associates in the spring of 2021 indicated that
elementary school students on average were 5 months behind in mathematics and 4
months behind in reading. These results, however, only included students who
could be tested in schools, not dropouts or those in remote learning.
·
The
sharp rise of chronic absenteeism indicates that high school dropout rates will
increase significantly.
COVID-19
has also led to a severe decline in enrollments at America’s community
colleges. Student enrollment was down 10 percent in the fall of 2020 compared
to that of 2019. Because community colleges are an important component of
apprenticeship, certificate, and other job preparation programs, this is a
significant blow to the development of a more skilled workforce. Moreover,
community colleges are the most accessible post-secondary option for low-income
Americans whose K-12 education has suffered most due to a lack of internet
access.
The Best Time
for Education Reform Is Now!
In the wake of the
COVID-19 pandemic, as the Brookings Report “Beyond Reopening Schools” cogently
states “it is hard to image there will be another moment in history when the
central role of education in the economic, social, and political prosperity and
stability of nations is so obvious and well understood by the general
population.” Now clearly is the time for
local, state, and federal action to revitalize K-12 education in the United
States.
It is time to go
beyond piecemeal reforms and playing “blame games” if we are to close the
widening gap in the quality of U.S. education. There are some fundamental
components of quality education that can be learned from the study of the world’s
most successful educational systems.
1. Great teachers: The key to boosting
student results is improving instruction. Teachers need to thoroughly know
their subjects and then receive extensive training and coaching in
instructional methodology before and after they begin teaching. More top
college students need to become teachers. To attract and retain these recruits,
we need to front-load their compensation so that entry-level salaries are
competitive with those of alternate professions. To keep their skills
up-to-date, teachers need quality professional development programs throughout
their careers.
2. Effective Principals: School principals need to
be educated and trained as both efficient administrators and drivers of
instructional improvement. They have a key leadership role in fostering a
culture of high expectations in educational attainment for teachers, students,
and parents.
3. Updated curriculums: All states need to
mandate strengthened 21st-century curriculums to give more students the
educational foundations necessary for high-skill/high-paying employment. As Figure
1 illustrates with a humorous touch, learning is a complex process in which
individual characteristics play an important role in how each person acquires
knowledge. More ways of accommodating learning styles are needed at all levels
of education. For example, to counter student dissatisfaction and lack of
motivation that is common at the high school level, career education programs
and advanced placement courses should be more widely available.
4. The Key Role of Parents: The switch to remote schooling during the
COVID-19 pandemic seems to have greatly increased parent awareness of the
difficulties teachers face in keeping students engaged and in helping them make
progress in their day-to-day learning. This should motivate parents to take a
greater interest in the quality of the schooling their children are receiving
and cooperate more fully in the fostering their children’s daily academic
progress.
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Figure 1 |
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The Looming
Disaster of Job Shock
As low-skill jobs shrink
due to automation, underprivileged elementary, high school and community
college students will bear the brunt of technological advances. They are under
threat of becoming the “technopeasants” of the 21st century.
We are referring
to millions of our future workers who deserve an education systemically updated
to meet the knowledge and skill demands of modern workplaces. America needs
them to become part of a new talent pool for the 21st-century, not the victims
of job shock.
Part IV: A New Time Bomb: An
Explosion of Skilled Worker Shortages
It is already apparent that as
COVID-19 restrictions ease, a pent-up demand for many types of goods and
services will be unleashed. As businesses reopen or expand to meet this boom,
the demand for skilled workers will soar. It is not likely to fall for the rest
of this decade. A major demographic shift, serious education deficits, and
rising job-skill demands have combined with COVID-19 to undermine the quality
and composition of the U.S. labor force.
Recent National Federation of Independent Business monthly surveys
report that small business owners’ plans to create new jobs were a record
highs, but that unfilled job openings were far above historical averages. The
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that there were a record 10.1 million
job openings at the end of July 2021, and the ratio of vacant jobs to hires was
140 percent. We estimate the true number to vacant jobs to be over 12 million.
Employers Face
Mounting Skills Challenges
COVID-19 has greatly
increased the need for skills training. The shift to remote work has placed new
skill demands on many employees. Because of the pandemic’s devastating effect
on certain industries, about 20 percent of U.S. workers have left their former
jobs for new types of work. A March 2021 Prudential Pulse of American Worker
Survey found that about one-quarter of the workers surveyed plan to look for a
different job with another employer once the current crisis eases. All these
factors indicate that employee training must be greatly increased.
A significant
shift in the priorities of American businesses is urgently needed. In recent
years business expenditures on training and education have declined. For each
dollar America’s chief foreign competitors invest in employee talent
development, U.S. business invests only 20 cents. Training is mostly
concentrated on managers and professionals. Only about 20 to 30 percent of U.S.
employers have offered entry-level job training or provided employees with
training updates. Much of what is now done is mandated by safety regulations.
It is not about building new skills.
A recent McKinsey
Global Survey found that 69 percent of businesses were doing more skill
building than they did prior to the pandemic. However, only 28 percent of these
organizations had a training department or similar facility focused on
learning. The organizations that employed a variety of education/training
methods reported a higher rate of success in reskilling and upskilling their
employees.
Even though
COVID-19 has greatly increased the need for entry-level training and
reskilling, many businesses are again expanding stock buy-backs and increasing
dividends rather than investing in worker skills. American companies and
organizations instead need to launch new HR initiatives to fill skilled job
vacancies and upskill their existing employees through a variety of means
including corporate universities and training partnerships.
Human and
Financial Costs
Job Shock will have a
major economic impact in the United States and globally. In 2030 estimated U.S
unfilled jobs range from 25 to 30 million. Globally over 95 million jobs could
be vacant. The financial costs for individuals, businesses, and nations will be
staggering. By 2030 U.S. GDP loss could be over $2.5 trillion. Global losses
might reach $18 trillion.
Job Shock: The
End of Profit?
The picture that emerges
from before, during, and after the COVID-19 crisis is an American workforce
with an abundance of people, but a shortfall of talent for the jobs of the
Fourth Industrial Revolution. An analysis of the composition of the U.S. labor
market at the beginning 2020 and projecting what it might be like in 2030 if
the education-to-employment system remains unchanged shows:
|
Chart 1 |
2020 (See Chart 1.)
Seventy percent of jobs (114 million) were high to mid-skill. Only 55 million
workers were qualified. The result was a 60 million job deficit. American
employers tried to fill these vacancies with retired baby-boomers, workers
brought from other countries, foreign students attending U.S. universities,
and/or the increased use of automation. Companies unable to find skilled talent
moved their jobs abroad.
Thirty percent of
all jobs (50 million) were lower skilled. There were 110 million workers at
that level, i.e., with limited math and reading competencies. The result was a
60 million worker surplus. Many gave up looking for a job (and thus were not
counted as unemployed) because they were not offered entry-level job training.
The 10.5 million
estimated vacant jobs cost the United States $253 billion in lost productivity
and profit.
|
Chart 2 |
2030 (See Chart 2.)
At least 75 percent of jobs (128 million) will be high to mid-skill. Only 33
percent of American workers (about 56 million) will be qualified for these
jobs, resulting in a 72 million job deficit. The U.S. skilled labor shortage
will deepen because 70 million baby-boomers will have aged out of the
workforce, a global 50 to 95 million skilled worker shortages will limit
immigration to the United States, and increased automation will demand ever
higher skill levels from workers. STEM
jobs will among the fastest growing over this decade. The pace of companies
leaving the United States due to skilled-talent shortages will rise.
In contrast, 25
percent of U.S. jobs (42 million) will remain low skill. If education and skill
upgrades are not adopted over this decade, possibly 114 million low skill
people will be in the U.S. labor force. A huge “techno-peasant” underclass will
compete for a diminishing number of low skill jobs. High unemployment coupled
with mounting skill shortfalls could pose a real threat to American social
stability.
An estimated 30
million vacant jobs are possible. The annual economic loss to the U.S. economy
will be between $1 trillion to over $2.5 trillion.
The Job Shock
Crossroad
We do have the power over
this decade to increase the education and skills of American workers. We can
produce a workforce that meets the talent requirements of 2030. It does require
coordinated actions from key sections of our society. Picture the American
talent creation system as a boat with two figures pulling the oars and a third
at the rudder. Parents are the rudder steering a better course for their
child’s future. One oar is pulled by educators (K-12, post-secondary). The
other oar is in the hands of employers providing job training and skill updates
to their workers. If one or more of these parties fails at their roles, the
boat goes off-course, stops, or sinks from ever larger job shock waves.
This coordinated
effort needs to start at the regional level. Enlightened community leaders need
to pull together to keep the boat on course. The COVID-19 pandemic has produced
a storm of hurricane proportions making the need for immediate action more
vital than ever.
Yet many people
across America remain opposed to systemic social changes. They are deeply
divided into multiple warring “tribes.” They remain at war with each other
rather than working to reach agreement on vital common goals. Their acceptance
of the cold, hard facts of “Job Shock” remains a hard sell.
The longer the
United States delays making systemic changes to the education-to-employment
system, the deeper the economic and social turmoil between now and 2030. As
Lawrence Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary said about employment,
“Walk outside: labor shortage is the pervasive phenomenon.”
Part V: Talent
RX: RETAIN Partnerships
The
COVID-10 pandemic has triggered widespread doubts about the future. The U.S.
job market is in chaos. At the end of July 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported an unprecedented 10.1 million job openings across many
business sectors. Might this finally be the right time to start anew and find
fresh solutions to the skills-jobs shock now underway?
Today’s
unprecedented economic upheaval presents an unprecedented opportunity. There
are millions of unemployed on the one hand, and rapidly evolving job-skill
needs on the other – providing a way for the former to solve the latter’s
problem. Communities across the United States have a diversity of
underdeveloped talent. They badly need local pathways that promote equity
through offering high quality educational opportunities that are accessible to
everyone. This means providing more students and workers with enhanced talent
development programs aligned with personal aptitudes and interests and the
needs of local business and organizations.
The
current U.S. labor market is in desperate need of more people who have
developed their cognitive, interpersonal, and leadership skills. People who can
problem-solve. These people aren’t going to drop from the skies. You can’t
click for brains. How can we successfully prepare more people for the skilled
jobs of today and tomorrow?
RETAINs
Across the United States
at least 1,000 non-profit groups have organized to reinvent local
talent-delivery systems. These public-private partnerships bring together a
broad cross-section of community groups, such as parent organizations;
chambers-of-commerce; K-12 and higher educational institutions; workforce
boards, regional economic development commissions; local governments; unions;
service clubs; foundations and other non-profit social welfare agencies. (See
Figure 2.)
|
Figure 2 |
To
provide a descriptive term for such organizations, we coined the term Regional
Talent Innovation Network (RETAIN). They have many local brand names, such as
The New North (Northeast Wisconsin), High School Inc (Santa Ana, California),
the Vermillion Advantage (Danville, Illinois), ConxusNEO (Akron, Ohio), the
Community Education Coalition (Columbus, Indiana), Manufacturing Renaissance (Chicago,
Illinois) and Prosper (Birmingham, Alabama).
RETAINs
began in the 1990s to respond to the economic erosion of their communities.
Instead of seeing their young people move elsewhere for employment, they sought
to retain them in their communities. Keeping the population stable also enabled
communities to retain local businesses and thus stop the erosion of the tax
base. Once these communities built a skilled workforce, they could attract new
businesses to locate there.
In
the short term, RETAINs build a network in which local businesses collaborate
with training organizations, educational institutions, and in-house training
departments to provide training for vacant jobs and to upskill current
employees. This both enables employees to move into higher-skill/higher-paying
jobs and enhances the profitability of local businesses through the more
efficient use of new technologies. Access to pooled resources make these
training collaboratives particularly beneficial to smaller businesses that
cannot afford to provide their own in-house training.
In
the long-term RETAINs update educational programs at all levels starting in
elementary schools and extending to a wide variety of post-secondary options
including certificate and apprenticeships programs. They work to harmonize
existing educational programs and devise new ways to fill in skill gaps.
RETAINs help reconcile funding streams and secure new revenue to integrate
K-12, career education, higher education, and adult training. (See Figure 3.)
|
Figure 3 |
We
agree with a Wall Street Journal editorial (June 9, 2021) that failing
K-12 public schools are the “root cause of America’s skilled-worker shortage.”
K-12 schools are locally controlled. RETAINs foster communication and
cooperation among diverse community sectors. Many students today lack
motivation as they find schooling too abstract and unrelated to the “real
world.” These students and teachers need
active connections with local employers to learn about the education and skills
required for careers in today’s workplaces. Local businesses need to interact
with both public and private high school students through sponsoring career
education programs, internships, and other activities that allow students to
explore career areas that align with their aptitudes and interests.
RETAINs
see themselves as joint partners in community building and in the renewal of
the U.S. free enterprise system. They are rebuilding the pipeline that connect
their community members to the job market. The key words here are “bottom-up
collaboration” – defined as joint authority, joint responsibility, and joint
accountability among all the partners.
RETAINs
Can Make a Difference
The good news is what we
can expect if RETAINs are instituted across America to rebuild the U.S.
workforce. (See Chart 3.) In 2030 the U.S. economy will support about 170
million jobs; 128 million of them will be high-skill or mid-skill jobs. RETAINs
can increase the expected 56 million high/mid-skill workers by retraining 30
million additional workers and preparing 10 million more students for skilled
employment. Thus 96 million high/mid-skill workers will be available.
Chart 3
Combining
these job-ready workers with additional automation will reduce the number of
vacant jobs across the economy. There still will be a substantial, but not
overwhelming number of surplus workers. However as more communities use the
RETAIN model to sustain job-ready workforces, the number will fall. The
American middle class will grow again as high wage employment rises.
Moving
Forward
The COVID-19 pandemic has
heightened job shock in the United States and around the globe. It has
disrupted schooling leaving the economically disadvantaged even further behind.
Millions of workers have either changed jobs or faced unemployment. Education
and training solutions are more vital than ever before. RETAINs can be an
important force in preparing students and workers for positions in America’s
fast paced, technologically driven, knowledge economy. Regional development can
better support broad economic expansion and ensure that the United States
remains a highly competitive global economy.
Part VI: RETAIN
Case Studies: Partnerships Rebuilding Local Employment Pipelines
Across the United
States RETAINs have many local brand names.
RETAINs bring together enlightened community leaders from many industry
sectors. They cooperate in developing initiatives that provide career education
and information to students and retrain incumbent workers to meet the skill
demands of workplace technology changes. The goals of RETAINs are to strengthen
local institutions and competitive companies while providing local residents
with better job opportunities.
There are many
paths to pursuing these objectives. Here are examples of RETAINs that are
continuing to develop programs that address the talent challenges in their
communities.
Manufacturing
Renaissance, Chicago, Illinois
For the past 38 years
Manufacturing Renaissance (MR) has been recognized as a leading expert,
advocate and practitioner of policies and programs that support the
manufacturing sector as a primary strategy for reducing poverty, expanding
inclusion, and sustaining middle-class communities.
MR has currently developed
programs in three areas: Career Pathway Services, Policy and Advocacy, and
Economic Development. Here is a snapshot of MR’s Career Pathway Services:
Manufacturing
Connect.
MC is a program designed to expose, inspire, prepare, and support youth
and young adults to pursue career pathways in manufacturing. MC is a community-based program serving
in-school youth, ages 14-18, to provide high quality, career pathway
programming including career exposure, technical training and work experiences
to help young people start and keep good paying jobs in manufacturing.
Young
Manufacturers Association. The YMA serves as
both a network and a program for young adults, aged 18-29, who are pursuing
careers in manufacturing, in-between jobs, in training or interested in
starting a career in manufacturing. Through regular meetings and social events,
they support one another as peers through training, transition into permanent
employment, professional and life skills development, and balancing personal
and work life dynamics. The YMA as a program provides services on an as-needed
basis, including career coaching, wrap-around supports, employer liaison to
help troubleshoot issues that come up at work, and technical training.
Together, the YMA network and program are serving the untapped talent and
potential that young adults specifically represent to their communities and
their current or future employers.
Instructors
Apprenticeship for Advanced Manufacturing. IAAM
was developed in partnership with the Chicago Teachers Union Foundation and
the National Institute for Metalworking Skills to train the next generation of
great machining instructors to be technologically, culturally, and
pedagogically competent in the machine shop classroom.
Career Pathway Services is not a
traditional workforce development program. MR draws heavily from a youth
development and social services orientation to engage youth and young adults
who typically may not identify or seek out manufacturing as a pathway that can
assist them in achieving their life goals. MR introduces young people to the
sector, finds a variety of ways for them to relate to peers already in the
sector to help illuminate what could be possible for their future. No matter
what they ultimately choose, young people benefit from having a network of
professional and social support, work experiences, technical and
professionalism skills. For those who enroll in our training program and choose
to pursue a career-track job in manufacturing we support them as much as
possible through training, job placement and beyond to help ensure their
success.
MR is expanding its reach in Cook
County and showing the way for other RETAINs to begin similar efforts. It
illustrates that for a RETAIN to be successful there must be strong cooperation
among educational entities, the business community, unions. government
agencies, and non-profit partners.
High School Inc., Santa Ana, California
The
initial impetus for the creation of the High School Inc. Academies Foundation
came from local business leaders in the Santa Ana Chamber of Commerce. Starting
in 2003, members of the Chamber of Commerce held discussions with school
districts officials on how to raise student achievement. The result was a
partnership involving the Chamber, the Foundation and the Santa Ana Unified
School District. An official “Memorandum of Understanding was signed by all
three partners in May of 2006. This agreement outlined the responsibilities of
each partner for the development and operation of the High School Inc. program.
The
first six High School Inc. Academies began in 2007 on the campus of Santa Ana
Valley High School in the Santa Ana Unified School District. The district’s
Career Technical Education (CTE) department conducts monthly meetings with High
School Inc.’s staff to maintain the continuity and effectiveness of the
academies.
At
Valley High School,
the High School Inc. Academies
merge both academic and technical skills through Project Based Learning (PBL),
competitions, mentorships, and business internships. Because of the success of
the High School Inc. academies, there has been considerable growth in the school
district’s creation of career pathways in business and industry sectors. These pathways start
as early as sixth grade in the school district’s intermediate schools and send
students into the waiting High School Inc. Academies.
The
number of Valley high school students categorized as “socioeconomically
disadvantaged” in 2008 was 80 percent. However, with the help of talented
teachers and staff members, and the existence of High School Inc., Valley High
School has raised the level of achievement for all Valley high school students.
Mary
Tran, Executive Director of High School Inc. reports that the six High School
Inc. Academies have grown from an enrollment of 96 students at its start in
2007 to over 1,572 students in 2019. The Academies boast a 98 percent high
school graduation rate. In the past year there have been 160 professional
internships for seniors. The number of students receiving "Industry
Certifications" after a minimum of two years in the program was 511, with
over 319 students participating in business/industry themed competitions.
Students in the 2018-2019 received over 950 hours of volunteer time from
business and industry representatives. The program has received numerous awards
and recognitions including the prestigious "Golden Bell Award" given
to High School Inc. in 2014 by the California School Board Association.
Jack
E. Oakes, an officer on the Board of Directors for High School Inc., says “High
School Inc.’s development has produced the realization that, before students
can be College and Career Ready, they must be ‘Achievement Ready.’ Students
reach this new level of preparedness by being motivated to strive at or beyond
their potential. The High School Inc. model ensures that students are
Achievement Ready before they graduate and pursue higher education and
careers. The reforms at Valley High School embrace the mission of High School
Inc. ‘to empower youth and strengthen communities through education and
business partnerships.’ ”
Vermilion
Advantage, Danville, Illinois
The Danville
Area Economic Development Corporation has been operating in Danville for 39
years. This organization merged with the Chamber of Commerce in 2002 to form
a single entity- Vermilion Advantage. Vermilion Advantage is the lead
agency in the county for economic development, workforce support, and local
business data.
Vermilion
Advantage is a unique hybrid organization that employs a multi-pronged approach
to economic development, workforce development, and community
development. It works closely with the county’s communities and
businesses to anticipate, develop, and maintain a viable workforce and
community. Its mission is to create a community where people work, live
and play.
Workforce
development continues to be a high priority. The Vermilion Advantage
partners with the local community college and the Workforce Investment Board to
introduce high school students in Vermilion County to apprenticeships,
internships, and other career-related programs that are central to the
continued success of the local economy.
The New North,
Northeast Wisconsin
The New North geographic
region covers the 18 northeast counties of Wisconsin. Since it started in 2005 New North, Inc. has
grown to become a RETAIN that now has the support of over 100 private
investors. It fosters collaboration
among a long list of private and public sector leaders and governmental
entities. Its website includes multiple resources for employers, workers,
educational institutions, students, and parents. It facilitates communication
among these communities providing such information as in-demand jobs and
careers, the educational requirements for them, and regional resources for
obtaining the needed educational preparation.
New North acts as
an intermediary in workforce and career development that enables key industry
sectors to build stronger employment pipelines. It acts as an umbrella
organization linking industry associations including the Northeast Wisconsin
(NEW) Manufacturing Alliance, Northeast Wisconsin Educational Resource Alliance
(NEW ERA), NEW Digital Alliance, and the NEW Construction Alliance.
The NEW
Manufacturing Alliance began in 2006 with 12 manufacturers has grown to over 300
member organizations. It provides information on careers in advanced
manufacturing to local students in middle schools, high schools, and local
community/technical colleges. The
alliance actively recruits students using plant tours, career speakers, and job
shadowing. Ann Franz, the Alliance’s
executive director, states its central message “that manufacturing is a
vibrant, well-paying career is resonating with people.”
The alliance also
posts its member companies’ employment opportunities on its website
(www.newmfgalliance.org), showing the training and education requirements and
skills required for each job. Many
member companies offer tuition reimbursement for their employees. The
Alliance’s Earn and Learn Program pairs high school seniors in youth apprenticeship
programs or taking dual-credit courses in manufacturing with area manufacturers
who want to offer a training opportunity to such students. The companies pay a
portion of the college course tuition for these students and the students work
part-time for the manufacturers.
ConxusNEO, Akron, Ohio
ConxusNEO is focused on building the capacity and improving the performance of
the talent ecosystem in Summit County, OH. Rather than running programs,
ConxusNEO takes stock of organizations doing programming within five essential
functions to prepare young people and adults with the skills and competencies
companies tell us they need. The
five functions are: Awareness, Exploration, Development, Connection and Upskill
(See Figure 4.)
|
Figure
4 |
ConxusNEO supports
programs that deliver positive outcomes, so they have the resources they need
to continue and, in some cases, to scale their work. ConxusNEO also identifies
gaps in the system that need to be shored up. In some cases, new programs need
to be created to continue to cultivate a comprehensive system that delivers the
results wanted in the local community. ConxusNEO is also establishing key
performance indicators within each of these functions to begin to track
community-wide outcomes.
In order to accomplish
this, it partners with companies to identify the skills they need, and it
supports them to work with educators, and a range of other partners to innovate
solutions that: (1) fill open positions and (2) build a talent pipeline with
those skills
ConxusNEO has created
industry sector partnerships within the manufacturing, tech and healthcare
sectors to bring all of these partners together. Its role is to convene and
facilitate the process.
The bottom line is that
every organization wins when a cooperative program is done well. Companies
become investors in the education system instead of simply consumers. That’s
one of the reasons the College and Career Academies of Akron has been so
successful in engaging the business community. Businesses helped to establish
new pathways aligned with demand and provide experiential learning
opportunities and curriculum development support. ConxusNEO served as the
community convener for the master planning process and it continues to support
implementation.
As the work of ConxusNEO
is driven by the demand for specific skills, it routinely compiles, analyzes
and shares data with its partners and vets this kind of information with the
companies themselves.
And while jobs like
retail and fast food are in greatest demand, ConxusNEO focused on good and
promising jobs for Summit County residents – ones that have a career pathway
and that provide a good wage with benefits and advancement opportunities.
Summing Up
Each organization profiled here has continued to
evolve to meet the challenges posed by technological, economic, and workforce
shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted American life at many levels. It
opens up new opportunities for many communities to use the RETAIN model as
their first step toward a more knowledgeable workforce and the better paying
jobs of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Part VII: Final
Word: A Decisive Skilled Talent Decade
The Great Job
Awakening
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a pivotal time in history. It has caused
disastrous disruptions to the world’s economies including that of the United
States and radically shifted people’s priorities. During the pandemic many who lost their jobs
when their employers downsized or disappeared were struggling to find good
paying jobs. As pandemic restrictions started to be lifted in the spring of
2021, sizeable numbers of people have not been returning to the labor market.
The rate of baby-boomer retirements accelerated during the pandemic. Some workers (especially in the leisure and
hospitality sectors) seem to have decided that they do not want to return to
their former jobs and instead want to seek employment in other industries
As the number of
job openings have swelled to unprecedented levels, businesses cannot find
workers with the skills needed for their vacant jobs. In many businesses
sectors and parts of the country, employers report that finding qualified
workers is their top business problem. To attract employees, many employers are
raising wages, offering flexible hours, and using a variety of other strategies
to find the workers they need.
The purpose of
this “Job Shock” White Paper is to trigger a major mindset change about the
wide gulf between education and skills needed for the in-demand jobs of today
and tomorrow and the current state of the nation’s education-to-employment
systems. Past history tells us that when people are emerging from a great
crisis, they are more open to considering systemic change. Suddenly people
realize how important education and job skills have become for them and also
for their children’s future.
Enlightened
Leadership
During the First
Industrial Revolution, education reforms were needed to support the new math
and literacy demands in the offices and factories of rapidly expanding cities.
Starting at the regional and state levels, enlightened community leaders
spearheaded the expansion of compulsory tax-supported primary and secondary
education. By 1918 all of the then 48 states mandated this standard of public
schooling backed by tough truancy laws. The United States was the first nation
to do this!
This
education-to-employment system is now out of date as a larger percent of jobs
in the Fourth Industrial Revolution require higher levels of reading and math
comprehension and some form of post-secondary education. During the U.S. Civil
War, Abraham Lincoln said, “Enlightened leaders and publics can create together
sane and inclusive policies that strengthen our vital institutions at home and
abroad.” This is another era of great upheaval and crisis. To help our
communities survive and thrive, sweeping reforms are needed. “Job Shock” has
identified regional leaders who are already at work in many American
communities to update community talent-development systems. They need our
support to bring these efforts to scale across the United States.
Building
RETAINs
“Nothing is as powerful as an idea whose time has come.” RETAINs can form the bridge that connects
people to jobs. RETAIN building requires 3 steps:
1.
Awareness –
finding solutions for skills-jobs shortfalls.
2.
Alignment –
facing the challenges of partnership formation by learning how to work
effectively with others.
3.
Action –
implementing training and education programs for adult workers as well as
career education and information initiatives for K-12 students.
We can’t afford to
wait for others to take concerted action in our communities. The passive
attitude that somehow America will muddle through has hit the hard wall of
reality.
We hope that “Job
Shock” will motivate readers to ask, “What action can I take to relieve this
skilled worker shortage?” The
opportunity for making this a decisive skilled labor decade may well hinge on
your answer.
The time is now. The
urgency is clear! The challenge can be met!
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